Since writing my first piece on Africa on 20 April 2020 (click here to read), there have now been 386,947 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Africa and a documented 9,736 deaths. (1)
Both figures are likely to be enormous under-estimates with concerns being voiced by the healthcare staff of many countries as well as outside agencies, including the United Nations African Union Mission and the WHO (World Health Organisation), that the virus is spreading rapidly and invisibly across the continent.
Doctor Matshidiso Moeti, the WHO’s regional director for Africa, said, “It took 98 days to reach the first 100,000 cases, and only 18 days to move to 200,000 cases..... Even though these cases in Africa account for less than 3% of the global total, it’s clear that the pandemic is accelerating.” (2)
There have been varied responses to the pandemic across the different countries of Africa. In some countries there is no official recognition or even acknowledgement that there is a pandemic, whilst in others they are facing the dual threat of COVID-19 and terror attacks by extremist groups eager to take advantage of the vacuum created as armies are redeployed to tackle the outbreak.
This piece looks at Tanzania and Nigeria. Future pieces will look at other countries within Africa.
Tanzania
Tanzania has not submitted any data since 29 April 2020 and it seems unlikely any more will be forthcoming. Its last reported figures were 509 cases and 21 deaths. (1)
On May 8th the government announced it had suspended reporting of COVID-19 figures citing "improvement work" taking place at the National health Laboratory as a reason. (3)
Since then the president has declared the pandemic over citing a miraculous healing from God. (4)
The head of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, John Nkengasong, has called for transparency from Tanzania saying, “We strongly call on Tanzania, encourage Tanzania, to share data in a timely fashion” but to no avail. (5)
Meanwhile, the country is also experiencing a spike in cases of dengue fever, a mosquito borne viral illness that can be fatal. There are fears that the dengue outbreak is being missed amidst the influx of COVID-19 cases. (6)
This is not the first time the Tanzanian government has been reluctant to share its medical data. In September 2019 it was publicly rebuked by the WHO for failing to release information about suspected cases of Ebola virus disease within the country. (7)
Although an official lockdown was declared in Tanzania, the reality was that it was not enforced and life continued as normal. The president encouraged people to continue to congregate in places of worship and by 17 May 2020 he had announced the end of lockdown and declared the country open for tourists. (8)
The UK government advises against all but essential travel to Tanzania and notes in its travel advice that, “There have been instances during the COVID-19 outbreak when hospitals in Dar es Salaam reached full capacity due to the high volume of COVID-19 cases. Limited hospital capacity throughout Tanzania could result in life-threatening delays for emergency medical care.” (9)
Reports from within Tanzania hint at a very high death rate. A relative of a retired judge who died from proven COVID-19 said that when he went to arrange the burial he saw that his relative was the 256th COVID-19 recorded death for that municipality and that bodies were continuously being delivered to the local cemeteries. The BBC has been sent footage which appears to show secret night time burials taking place and has spoken to Tanzanian doctors who talk of a cover up of “people dying” and “devastation.” (10) (11)
Meanwhile anyone trying to report the true situation on the ground is allegedly being arrested under the 2015 Statistics Act which criminalises the unofficial collection of data. It is doubtful we will ever know the true extent of COVID-19 in Tanzania. (12)
Nigeria
Nigeria has recorded 17,735 cases and 469 deaths from COVID-19. The number of new cases per day is rising rapidly with between 550 and 650 new cases each day. (13)
Nearly half of all cases and a quarter of the deaths have been in Lagos State, Nigeria’s smallest but most populous state and home to the city of Lagos, the largest city in Sub-Saharan Africa in terms of population. (14) (15)
The most affected age range is 31-40, much lower than seen in most European countries, but this is against a backdrop of a life expectancy of only 54 years in Nigeria. (16)
The Nigerian Centre for Disease Control releases comprehensive daily reports detailing figures for all 36 states of Nigeria. Of concern is that the distribution of new cases is showing that transmission outside of urban areas is now happening. (17)
In a country of nearly 200 million people widespread testing was always going to prove problematic and to date around 97,000 tests have been carried out. The need for testing supplies is so acute that in April 2020 Dr Chikwe Ihekweazu, the head of the Centre for Disease Control, used Twitter to plea for testing kits. The private company, Vetsa Healthcare Nigeria, donated testing kits and other medical equipment to support the COVID-19 response. (18)
In Kano and Jigawa states in northern Nigeria fears are growing that increasing numbers of unexpected deaths are because of COVID-19. Grave diggers report that they are preparing much higher numbers of burial sites than usual but this has been contradicted by officials. Elsewhere, in the north-eastern state of Gombe people are protesting about what they believe to be a hoax pandemic saying it is in fact a conspiracy to make money. Such beliefs are deep rooted in a country with a history of corruption. (19)
Unfortunately when the pandemic first reached Nigeria many of the populace saw it as a fitting punishment from God afflicting the only rich and elite. The first cases and deaths were amongst government officials, ambassadors and politicians. President Muhammadu Buhari's chief of staff, Abba Kyari, died from COVID-19 on 17 April 2020. In fact these first cases were all brought into the country from Europe and reflect the fact that only the elite are able to travel. From there it quickly spread to the large number of staff such people have - cooks, nannies, drivers, cleaners – who in turn infected their own families and friends, many of whom live in the poverty stricken and slum areas where conditions are ideal for the spread of the virus. (20)
Nigeria’s healthcare system is fragile and poorly funded and there are ongoing outbreaks of Lassa Fever and measles across the country. (21)
Nigeria already has a worryingly low number of doctors with only one doctor for 6,000 people, way below the WHO recommendation one doctor to 600 people. (22)
Against this backdrop, doctors in the state run hospitals began a nationwide strike on 15 June 2020 in protest against inadequate PPE (Personal Protective Equipment) provision, pay cuts and police harassment. The strike is described as “indefinite” by the doctors’ union with an exemption for the next two weeks for COVID-19 treatment centres. However, doctors say they will also withdraw from the COVID-19 centres if the government does not meet their demands after this time. (23) (24)
The situation in Nigeria is made worse by continuing attacks by the extremist group Boko Haram, the group who kidnapped 276 schoolgirls in north-eastern Nigeria in 2014.
An initiative between Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon and Chad to try and defeat Boko Haram has been put on hold as resources are diverted away to fight the pandemic instead. In turn this is allowing Boko Haram time to re-group and re-launch attacks.
In Chad, Boko Haram attacked and killed nearly 100 soldiers on 23 March 2020, just four days after COVID-19 was confirmed in the country. On the same day, they attacked and killed 47 soldiers in Nigeria.
In the second week of June twin attacks in Nigeria’s Borno state killed more than 100 people. (25) (26) (27)
In both Chad and Nigeria troops preparing to support the fight against COVID-19 had to be re-deployed to launch an offensive against Boko Haram. Meanwhile, Islamic State West Africa, a breakaway group from Boko Haram, described the pandemic as “an opportunity to step up efforts and expand activities.”
Health and aid workers have long been the target of extremist groups and it is highly probable that Boko Haram will target any attempt to educate people about COVID-19 and, should a vaccine become available, try and disrupt its use. (28) (29)
Meanwhile, the US is threatening to withdraw its troops from Africa, a move which many even in the ruling Republican party do not agree with at this critical time. (30) (31)
Many governments in the west are taking their eyes off Africa as they contend with the virus at home, perhaps allowing the low number of cases and deaths being reported from the continent to lull them into a false sense of security that Africa is faring well in the pandemic. This complacency will only allow the combined threat of a virus and terrorist extremism to flourish and grow unabated.
(12) https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/tanzania-evades-covid-19-lockdown-restrictions-persist
