This piece will look at the current situation in Africa and focus on some of the individual countries of concern. Previously in the blog you can click here for the piece “Africa and COVID-19” first written in April 2020 and updated in June 2020 and click here for the piece “COVID-19: Then and Now - Africa and Asia” written in November 2020.
To date Africa as a whole has recorded 3,356,223 cases and 81,894 deaths from COVID-19. Although the numbers remain much lower than elsewhere in the world (Europe has recorded 28,233,096 cases and 647,627 deaths; the USA 25,004,327 cases and 416,022 deaths) a second wave is spreading across the continent and numbers are rising. A lack of COVID-19 testing capacity in many African nations combined with varying methods of recording deaths may be keeping the figures artificially low. (1)
Africa's Second Wave
Although compared to other parts of the world Africa was relatively mildly hit with a first wave of COVID-19, a second wave is now spreading across the continent.
Of the 54 sovereign countries in Africa, 33 are experiencing a second wave.
Some are recording much higher case and death numbers than they did in their first waves with South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Zambia, Uganda, Zimbabwe and Malawi in particular suffering severe second waves.
Kenya and Algeria appear to be recovering from their second waves.
Tanzania remains of grave concern as it has not released any data since May 2020 and the president has declared he will not allow vaccines into the country. This is discussed in more detail below.
A full list of those countries in an established second wave, including those worse affected, can be found at the end of this piece.
It should be noted that a paucity of data in some countries means omission from the list does not necessarily correlate with low COVID-19 figures.
The death rate across the continent from COVID-19 rose above the global average for the first time this month (January 2021). (2)
Dr John Nkengasong, head of the AU’s Africa Centres for Disease Control, told reporters that the situation is “very severe and that daily case rates across the continent have surged to roughly twice the previous peak in July and August and are likely to rise further as the impact of travel during the December holiday period becomes clearer”
He also said that the main driver now was human behaviour saying “after strong compliance with mitigation measures last year, “prevention fatigue” had set in, with people neglecting social distancing practices.”
Nigeria, Egypt and South Africa have seen their figures rise by around 25 percent over the past four weeks and their death rate by 30 percent. (3) (4)
Vaccination
Although an initial 600 million doses have been promised to Africa by COVAX (a WHO-backed international agreement whereby richer countries have pledged funding to help low income countries buy the vaccine) none of these doses have yet been supplied to Africa. Negotiations around the procurement process are still ongoing.
Meanwhile the AU (African Union) has secured 270 million vaccine doses from Pfizer, Oxford/AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson and aims to start rolling them out by April 2021. The AU anticipates that it will take up to three years to vaccinate 60 percent of Africa’s population and that is only if the COVAX vaccine programme is honoured.
South Africa is the only nation that has been able to strike its own deal directly with a manufacturer and has ordered 1.5 million doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine. The Serum Institute of India is producing the vaccine for low- and middle-income countries having partnered with the Oxford/AstraZeneca team. (5)
South African president, and the chair of the AU, Cyril Ramaphosa, said that he anticipates that any vaccine supply prior to June 2021 “may not extend beyond the needs of frontline healthcare workers, and may thus not be enough to contain the ever-increasing toll of the pandemic in Africa.” (6)
With a population of 1.3 billion people and each person requiring two doses of vaccine Africa needs around 2.6 billion doses in total. The current pledge of 600 million vaccines and the 270 million secured by the AU will only be enough to vaccinate one third of the population. And with several of the vaccines requiring storage at -70’C many places do not yet have the necessary cold storage facilities needed to be able to house the vaccine. (7)
New Variants
As discussed in the piece “The New Variant of COVID-19” (click here to read), it is normal for all viruses to change, or mutate. One such variant first identified in the UK has accounted for a rapid rise in cases.
In Kenya, the state-linked Kenya Medical Research Institute has detected a variant that appears to be unique to Kenya. It was first detected when the results of research on samples taken between June and October 2020 were analysed. The variant was only found in the south-east of the country and at the time of writing it is not known how much (or how little) this variant has impacted Kenya’s case numbers. (8)
South Africa first detected a new variant in December 2020 which appears to spread faster than the original virus. It has also been detected in two of its neighbours – Botswana and Zambia – but also in The Gambia in West Africa. As with the variant identified in the UK, the South African one is more infectious (or transmissible) but does not appear to cause more severe disease in any one individual. (9)
The current vaccines are expected to work against all the variants identified so far. Scientists are also already preparing other versions of the vaccine aimed specifically at new variants. (10) (11)
Specific Countries
Nigeria
Schools have reopened in Nigeria despite concerns about rising cases of Covid-19 as the country copes with a second wave of infections. The schools had been closed since mid-December. (12)
Meanwhile health officials in Nigeria are worried that fake COVID-19 vaccines are being sold in the country. The Director General of Nigeria's National Agency for Food Drug and Administration Control, Mojisola Adeyeye, said no drugs had been approved, and any being marketed could cause serious illness. The country hopes to vaccinate 40 percent of its population this year. (13)
(12) https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/nigeria-confirms-1-444-covid-19-cases-as-schools-reopen/2113890
Malawi
Schools in Malawi closed for at least two weeks from 18 January 2021 as the country suffers a rapid increase in infections. There is also a night-time curfew from 21:00.
Two senior cabinet ministers have died from COVID-19. (14)
President Lazarus Chakwera has appealed for $220 million to help combat the COVID-19 pandemic saying that more than 200 treatment centres need updating and supplying with new equipment. (15)
(14) https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/malawi-announces-new-lockdown-measures-covid-cases-surge
Algeria and Tunisia
Algeria has announced that it will share some of the doses of COVID-19 vaccine it has ordered from Russia with its neighbour Tunisia by the end of the month.
Algeria has ordered an unspecified quantity of the Sputnik V vaccine from Russia plus another from China. It's not known which of the Chinese-developed COVID-19 vaccines they have ordered. The announcement comes amid concerns that one of the Chinese vaccines - CoronaVac - is only 50.4% effective. (16)
Algeria's President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has returned to Germany for further treatment after he caught COVID-19 three months ago. He was treated in Germany for two months, returning to Algeria on 29 December 2020. (17)
Zimbabwe
Three serving politicians have died from COVID-19 in Zimbabwe.
Foreign Minister Sibusiso Moyo died on 20 January 2021.
The minister for Manicaland Provincial Affairs, Ellen Gwaradzimba, died of Covid-19 on 15 January 2021 aged 60 and Perrance Shiri – the minister for Lands, Agriculture and Rural Resettlement - died in July 2020.
A lockdown came into force on 5 January 2021 after cases doubled over the preceding four weeks probably as a result of Christmas gatherings and traffic from neighbouring South Africa. (18)
Tanzania
Tanzania has not released any data since May 2020 and President John Magufuli continues to assert that the country is free of COVID-19.
He has also declared that the country will not be using any COVID-19 vaccines but instead will rely on local herbs for protection against the disease.
Gerald Chamii, a spokesman at the Tanzanian Ministry of Health said, “There are no plans in place yet of importing vaccine for COVID-19, our health experts and scientists are still researching and undergoing clinical trials for the local herbs for COVID-19.” (19)
There are no restrictions, lockdowns or curfews in Tanzania.
The media is prohibited from publishing any content on COVID-19 without the approval of authorities and many are afraid to speak out for fear of repercussions.
Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, the WHO regional director for Africa, said “we have not received any reports of cases from Tanzania — yet nor have we received any reports of zero cases in accordance with the international health regulations, which would also help neighbouring countries in assessing the level of health risk. We are ... in a position of not receiving any information from this country. ... We have worked to continue to encourage [sharing of information] so that it is clear not only to WHO, but most importantly it is clear to the neighbouring countries.”
A report from Human Rights Watch (HRW), warned that freedoms were being threatened saying, “There is a very small community of people who are willing to speak critically of the government. … People feel that they can’t speak out because their NGOs might be deregistered; they might be arrested.”
Two editors of independent newspapers who spoke to HRW anonymously reported being told they “must not publish material that the government would not like.”
This restriction of information means many Tanzanians believe that the country is COVID-19 free. However patchy reports from on the ground are reporting full hospitals and rising case numbers of infection.
Zitto Kabwe, the leader of the opposition party, does not believe the country is COVID-free saying that the silence around the issue is “a result of both the fear to speak out and acceptance, as people do not want to be locked down.” (20)
Tanzania had received funds of 27 million Euros from the EU to combat COVID-19 even though the country has declared itself free from it.
It has also received $14.3 million of COVID-related debt relief from the International Monetary Fund in June and borrowed US$ 3.79 million from the World Bank to support ‘laboratory diagnosis and management of COVID-19 cases.’
In October 2020 it borrowed a further $50.7 million from the African Development Bank for its ‘COVID-19 crisis response budget support’. There is growing international concern that these funds were used instead to finance the election campaign which saw the president re-elected in October 2020. (21)
Appendix 1
African countries in an established second wave.
Countries labelled with * are those where data indicates a second wave worse than the first wave.
South Africa *
Egypt *
Nigeria *
Algeria
Kenya
Ghana
Zambia *
Uganda *
Namibia *
Zimbabwe *
Mozambique *
Sudan
Cote d’Ivoire
Senegal
DRC
Botswana
Mauritania
Eswatini
Malawi *
Rwanda *
Burundi
Comoros *
Sierra Leone
Chad
Liberia
Eritrea *
Burkino Faso *
Mali *
Congo
Lesotho *
Togo
Niger *
Seychelles
All data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
