The UK has closed its air bridges with Spain and Luxembourg and warned against all but essential travel to both countries; cases of COVID-19 are increasing in the UK with localised lockdowns rapidly becoming the norm and every other newspaper headline seems to be warning that the second wave has begun. But at the very same time airlines are reporting a surge in demand as people are keen to get away on last minute holidays and the shielded group in the UK have been told they can now "unshield" and venture out. It is hard for people to know exactly what is happening. (1) (2) (3)
The Figures
Spain is seeing a dramatic increase in cases. The 7 day rolling average number of new cases was 234 per day on 2 June 2020 , it is now 2,844 as of 3 August 2020 and still increasing daily. Luxembourg recorded a 7 day average of just 2 new cases per day on 4 June 2020, it is 78 as of 3 August 2020 but is starting to show signs of decreasing. (4) (5)
For comparison, the UK's lowest 7 day average of new cases per day was 545 on 8 July 2020, the current 7 day average is 787 as of 3 August 2020. (6)
Whole numbers alone don't tell the whole picture, adjust for the number of cases per 1 million of the population and Luxembourg ranks 4th and Spain 5th out of the 48 European nations. The UK is 18th, Italy 20th and France 27th. (7)
Second Wave v One Big Wave
At the beginning of the pandemic there was an expectation that the virus may act with seasonal peaks and troughs depending on the season as happened with the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. However in the six months since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global health emergency, understanding of the virus has grown rapidly.
Dr Margaret Harris of the WHO told a UN virtual press conference held on 28 July 2020 that rather than a second wave the virus is "unfolding in “one big wave” - a trend that is evident from a global perspective." (8) (9)
The five worst affected countries at the current time are in completely different seasons to each other with the USA and Russia in their summer time, Brazil and South Africa in their winters and India in its rainy season. (10)
A resurgence to some degree is now expected as lockdown restrictions are eased. As Professor Jose Vazquez-Boland, chair of infectious diseases at the University of Edinburgh, says “We have to be clear that the efficacy of lockdowns is only temporary. There will be a resurgence of new cases every time social restriction measures are lifted as long as the virus remains in circulation.” (11)
Across Europe the increased case numbers are following a pattern of occurring around two months after lockdowns were eased. Those countries that have eased lockdown the most are the ones seeing the most rapid rise in new cases. In Barcelona in northern Spain a surge in cases has been traced back to the opening of nightclubs and other nightlife venues that were packed out with both locals and tourists. These have been closed again for 15 days. (12)
In the UK the current spike in cases in the Greater Manchester area has been linked to people ignoring the social distancing guidelines and meeting together again in large groups indoors, the scenario which carries the biggest infection risk. (13)
In my piece on 10 June 2020, "Will There be a Second Wave?" (click here to read) possible risk factors that would influence a resurgence of infection were identified. These included large indoor gatherings, lifting lockdowns too soon and too quickly, the influence of climate on the virus and the re-establishment of international travel.
Although climate now appears to be less of a factor in how the virus behaves it is increasingly clear that large indoor gatherings and a lack of regard for social distancing play a pivotal role in infection rates.
Our terminology may change from discussing a "second wave" to "one big wave" but the issue remains the same. This side of a vaccine some degree of restrictions in daily life will have to continue if we are to prevent a return to the overwhelming situation Europe found itself in in February and March of this year when a complete lockdown of entire nations was the only option for curbing the spread of infection. Rather than anticipating a second wave as a separate entity we need to be cracking down hard on all the mini-waves that we now know are going to keep coming for many months yet.
(2) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53648077
(3) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51997151
(4) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
(5) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/luxembourg/
(8) https://www.unmultimedia.org/tv/unifeed/asset/2552/2552162/
(9) https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/07/1069111
(10) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
(11) https://www.fr24news.com/a/2020/07/isolation-for-covid-19-must-be-increased-by-three-days.html
(12) https://www.euronews.com/2020/07/28/coronavirus-germany-and-austria-battle-local-outbreaks-as-italy-sets-1-000-face-mask-fine
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