UPDATE 25 May 2020
Annika Linde, the former state epidemiologist for Sweden, has withdrawn her support on the country’s lockdown strategy, saying she now believes the authorities should have put tougher restrictions in place much earlier. She made her announcement in light of Sweden's high death toll compared to its Scandinavian neighbours. (1)
Looking at COVID-19 cases and deaths per 1 million of the population (a more accurate analysis as it takes account of differing population sizes between countries) Sweden has now had 3315 cases and 396 deaths per 1M people; Norway 1542 cases and 43 deaths per 1M people; Finland 1191 cases and 56 deaths per 1M people and Denmark 1962 cases and 97 deaths per 1M people.
UPDATE 18 May 2020
This piece, originally from 30 March 2020, compared Sweden with Norway as neighbouring countries with very different approaches to lockdown. Adjusting for population sizes Sweden has now had eight times as many deaths as Norway.
Sweden now has 30,143 cases and 3679 deaths.
It has had 2987 cases and 365 deaths per 1M of population.
Norway now has 8249 cases and 233 deaths.
It has had 1523 cases and 43 deaths per 1M of population. (1)
UPDATE 9 May 2020
Sweden now has 25,921 cases and 3220 deaths.
It has had 2567 cases and 319 deaths per 1M of population.
Norway now has 8070 cases and 218 deaths.
It has had 1489 cases and 40 deaths per 1M of population. (1)
UPDATE 27 April 2020
Following on from the piece I wrote below there has been disagreement amongst scientists in Sweden over the approach the country has taken to the pandemic. Sweden's statistics show that elderly care home residents account for around 50% of all deaths with some claiming that the elderly are paying the price for the less restrictive measures.(1) (2)
Sweden has now had 19,000 cases and 2274 deaths, less than countries such as Italy, Spain and the UK but substantially more than the other Scandinavian countries. (3)
22 scientists wrote a damning piece in Sweden's leading daily paper Dagens Nyheter last week claiming that "officials without talent" had been put in charge of decision-making.(4)
Swedes do not appear to be united in their views with some of the population taking to social media demanding tougher restrictions whilst others are frequenting crowded places such as night clubs leading to the Prime Minister, Stefan Lofven, to warn that "it is not the time to relax".
Original Piece 30 March 2020
Whilst much of Europe is under lockdown, in Sweden life is going on almost as normal. Although gatherings of more than 50 people have been banned, shops, bars, clubs and restaurants have remained open.
Rather than impose strict rules, the Swedish government has instead issued guidelines and hopes that people will all take their individual responsibilities seriously and adhere to them.
The guidelines emphasise the need for regular hand washing, working from home if possible and limiting travel. The elderly and medically frail have also been advised to stay at home. There are no restrictions on going out into public places.
The prime minister, Stefan Löfven, in a televised address said "We who are adults need to be exactly that: adults. Not spread panic or rumours."
The demographic of the country is in its favour. With a population of just 10 million and a large landmass it is far less populated than, for example, the UK or Italy each of which have populations in excess of 60 million over a much smaller landmass.
Unlike Mediterranean Europe, where multi-generational homes and socialising closely together are the norm, more than half of Swedish households are single people. There are other factors too related to the Swedish psyche. Swedes naturally afford each other a large amount of personal space, a form of social distancing already the societal norm. Employers encourage their workers to stay at home with coughs and colds which could mean that those with mild COVID-19 are staying home and not spreading it to colleagues.
Overall Swedes trust the public authorities and as a nation are likely to implement the advice. However, as they see what is happening in the rest of Europe, some are beginning to question the advice and are calling for clearer guidance on how they should be interacting in public places such as gyms and shops. And some experts such as virologist Professor Björn Olsen have called on the government to “shut down everything that’s possible to shut down” as quickly as possible.
The numbers are becoming worrying. As of 27th April Sweden has so far reported 19,000 cases of the virus and 2274 deaths. It's neighbour Norway has 7600 cases and has had just over 200 deaths. Allowing for population differences (the Swedish population is twice that of Norway) Norway's cases number 1388 per million population compared to 1874 per million population in Sweden. However, in terms of deaths per million population, Norway has had 37 per 1M whereas Sweden has had 225 per M, six times as many.
Of note is that Sweden has the lowest number of hospital beds per person in Europe, followed by the UK.
The current measures in Sweden are virtually a carbon copy of those first instigated in the UK before a tighter lockdown was declared just one week later. Only hindsight will tell us which countries had the highest number of deaths per capita.
If it is Sweden, the lockdown measures elsewhere will be fully justified. If Sweden's final numbers are similar to their European neighbours then some will ask if the enforced lockdowns were necessary.
However, as Sweden's cases continue to increase rapidly, perhaps a better question to ask is whether, like the UK, their health service can cope with a sudden influx of critically ill people? As Dr Emma Frans, an epidemiologist based at the Swedish university "The Karolinska Institute" says "History will be the judge of which politicians and scientists around Europe have made the best calls so far. Nobody really knows what measurements will be the most effective, I'm quite glad that I'm not the one making these decisions".
