With some world leaders claiming that COVID-19 is less lethal than flu, and social media offering a platform for many dubious claims about COVID-19, there are some "theories" I am hearing again and again. (1) (2)
(It should be noted that both Facebook and Twitter are now actively removing inaccurate and false posts, irrespective of who the author is.) (3)
The truth about COVID-19 is becoming swamped by an ever increasing narrative of false claims, fear mongering and conspiracy theories.
Myth 1: Flu kills more people than COVID-19 - FALSE
In England in winter 2019-20 the number of flu deaths was 7,990; in winter 2018-19 there were 3,996 deaths and in the severe outbreak of winter 2017-18 there were 22,087 deaths. (4)
COVID-19 deaths to date in England are close to 51,000 (50,931) and continuing to increase. (This figure includes all deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate. The figure for deaths within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test is 40,414.) (5)
In ten months, COVID-19 has already killed more people in England than flu has over all of the past three years added together.
Scientists in the US have found that patients hospitalised with COVID-19 are five times more likely to die than those hospitalised with the flu. (6)
Myth 2: Sweden did not lockdown and is doing fine - FALSE
Sweden, with a population of around 10 million people and 5,927 total deaths from COVID-19, is often compared with the UK, population 68 million people and 45,675 deaths.
However when analysed as number of deaths per 1 million of their populations, the UK figure is 672 per 1 million people, placing it in 12th position on the world COVID-19 data board. Sweden’s figure is 586 deaths per 1 million people, placing it in 17th position and ahead of countries such as France, Ireland and Portugal.
It has also fared dramatically worse than its Scandinavian neighbours;
Norway 52 deaths per 1million people; position 105
Finland 64 deaths per 1million people; position 97
Denmark 123 deaths per 1million people; position 72
Sweden 586 deaths per 1million people: position 17
We do not yet know what the final death figures for every country around the world will be and Sweden may yet drop down the data board if deaths in other countries increase. What can be said with certainty at the current time is that Sweden has not been spared in the pandemic. (7)
Myth 3: There has never been a successful vaccine for a coronavirus in humans or animals - FALSE
This particular myth appears at first glance to be true after the head of the UK vaccine taskforce, Kate Bingham said on air: "There has never been a vaccine against a coronavirus and there may never be one." (8)
Bingham, a venture capitalist who by her own admission admits “I’m certainly not a vaccine expert" does not have a medical or research background. (9)
In fact in the veterinary world there are numerous, successful coronavirus vaccines in use. They are used across many species including cats, dogs, monkeys, camels, pigs and cows against the following coronavirus infections: Bovine coronavirus (BCoV), Transmissible gastroenteritis virus of swine (TGEV), Avian infectious bronchitis virus (IBV), Canine coronavirus (CCV) and Feline infectious peritonitis virus (FIPV). (10) (11)
The Jenner Institute, the research team based in Oxford who are currently carrying out phase III trials of a vaccine for COVID-19, have previously produced a vaccine for MERS (Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome), an illness also caused by a coronavirus and transmitted to humans from camels. The MERS vaccine is now in final phase III trials across Saudi Arabia where most cases of MERS occur. (12) (13) (14)
Research into a vaccine against SARS (Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome) had progressed to animal trials with some success. However the coronavirus causing SARS disappeared whilst vaccine research was still ongoing so no human trials of the vaccine ever took place. (15)
Against this background of coronavirus research across both the human and animal world there are reasons to be optimistic that a vaccine against COVID-19 will be produced.
Myth 4: We should let herd immunity solve the problem - FALSE.
To achieve herd immunity would involve allowing huge numbers of people to become seriously ill or die along the way. And we do not even know yet if herd immunity is possible for COVID-19.
Not all viruses can be contained with herd immunity, HIV for example.
It is not yet known if people who have had COVID-19 become immune to further infection or not. There have now been documented cases of second infections in the same person so allowing it to infect an entire population may not achieve anything in terms of immunity. (16)
If herd immunity is achievable current estimates are that at least 80% of the population will need to have COVID-19 first. (17)
In real figures that would mean 6.2 billion worldwide need to be infected with a best case scenario of 15 million deaths.
So far there have been 45 million cases and over 1 million deaths worldwide, high numbers but way below the levels that could be reached if we allow the virus to continue to spread unabated in the hope herd immunity will eventually protect us. (18)
Read more on herd immunity here.
Myth 5: A lot of doctors say the pandemic is all a hoax - FALSE
I have seen, or been sent, examples of e-mails and letters purporting to be from front line medical staff saying their hospitals are empty and there are no COVID-19 patients.
They are fake.
One such e-mail recently claimed to be from a hospital where I knew, as solid fact, that the intensive care unit was full and an overflow area for COVID-19 patients had been established in one of the operating theatres.
Colleagues have died from COVID-19 and I can assure you their deaths were not part of some elaborate hoax.
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